I just published the slides of the talk below presented at the Machine Learning Porto Alegre meetup in Brazil:
* This post is in Portuguese.
Introdução
Resolvi escrever esta nota sobre o estudo de prevalência de anticorpos (seroprevalence) que a UFPel está realizando no Rio Grande do Sul, pois parece haver um grande desentendimento por parte da população, principalmente por parte dos jornalistas em relação aos números reportados pelos pesquisadores da UFPel.
Since the generation time of a virus is very difficult to estimate, most studies rely on the serial interval which is estimated from the interval between clinical onsets. Given that most analysis use the serial interval, it is paramount to have an estimate of the precise onset dates of the symptoms.
I did a analysis for all states in Brazil using data from SIVEP-Gripe, the complete analysis is available here.
In the image above, we can see the gamma mean estimate for the delay on each state in Brazil. Below you can see the distribution for Rio Grande do Sul / RS:
